The unfortunate truth of fantasy football is that every year, there will be players who end the season as busts.
It’s statistically impossible for every player to reach his exact fantasy-point projection. Just as many players might overperform their draft position in a given year, others will fall short (maybe even well short) of their expectations.
Here are four wide receivers we feel have the highest potential to be a bust in the 2025 season. In other words, do your best to avoid this quartet in fantasy football drafts over the coming weeks.
Fantasy football WR busts to avoid in 2025
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks
In some ways, Smith-Njigba has the upside to be a WR1 in fantasy leagues as he comes off of a breakout season with the Seahawks last year. He finished his second season as WR17 in fantasy points per game, thanks in part to a second-half stretch between Weeks 9-18 that had him in top-10 fantasy wide receiver territory.
Add in the fact that the Seahawks brought in a new quarterback, Sam Darnold, with better marks in passer rating, touchdowns and average depth of target in 2024 than previous starter Geno Smith, and the outlook looks brighter.
On top of that, Seattle traded away Smith-Njigba’s biggest competition for targets: DK Metcalf.
However, the Seahawks did bring in wide receiver Cooper Kupp, which could limit some of Smith-Njigba’s upside. But more concerning is how Klint Kubiak, Seattle’s new offensive coordinator, has historically liked to run his offenses. He’s generally been the kind of guy who leans far heavier on the run game than the pass, and a vast majority of Kubiak’s plays as the Saints’ offensive coordinator last year used personnel groupings with two or fewer wide receivers.
That’s concerning for a receiver like Smith-Njigba, who thrives far more from the slot (as a ‘third’ receiver) than he does on the outside.
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
McLaurin was the talk of the town on Monday after finally signing his contract extension to stick around in Washington through 2028. But is he set up for success in fantasy football in 2025? Signs point to … maybe not.
Reasons to be excited about McLaurin this season include the fact that he’s been the model of consistency. Despite years of turmoil at Washington’s quarterback position, last year was the wideout’s fifth straight year with more than 1,000 receiving yards. Add in that Jayden Daniels seems to have solved the Commanders’ quarterback problem and that it led to a career-high touchdown total (13) for McLaurin last year, and it’s easy to see the hype.
What’s concerning about McLaurin is that the improved quarterback play didn’t significantly enhance production in other key stats. His targets in 2024 were his fewest since his rookie season, and his yardage total didn’t jump significantly, keeping his realistic ceiling around the 1,100 mark. A big reason for his improvement in fantasy football was that leap in touchdown output, rather than other factors.
The addition of fellow receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. to this offense won’t exactly help McLaurin in that regard. He’ll poach more of the Commanders’ lead receiver’s targets in general, and there will be more competition in red-zone targets specifically.
McLaurin went from being Washington’s No. 1 receiver by a wide, wide margin to still being Daniels’ lead wideout, but without as big a drop-off to the second option.
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
As with McLaurin and Smith-Njigba, there are signs of a potentially big season for Wilson. But there are also some red flags that could hold him back from reaching that high ceiling.
First, the good. Wilson is easily the leading receiver in the Jets’ passing offense, and there isn’t much of a competition there. The second option for new quarterback Justin Fields is either Josh Reynolds, Allen Lazard or rookie tight end Mason Taylor. Wilson is also coming off of a season in which he set career-high marks in receptions (101) yards (1,104) and touchdowns (7), which is only more encouraging.
But here comes the bad. His quarterback is former college teammate Fields, a passer who hasn’t managed to stay healthy for a full season in his career and one who spent most of last year on the bench. A passer who also struggled to throw the ball accurately and with consistency throughout much of training camp and in preseason matchups. A passer who appears to trust his legs far more than his arm.
So while the floor may be high for Wilson – thanks to the higher volume he will likely see due to the lackluster receivers room in New York – his ceiling is capped significantly by Fields’ limitations as a passer.
DK Metcalf, Pittsburgh Steelers
Once again, we come to a receiver whose outlook for 2025 appears phenomenal on the surface. Little serious competition for targets and due to catch passes from a well-established quarterback.
However, Metcalf’s landing in Pittsburgh means he ends up in a fantasy wasteland for pass-catchers.
Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has a well-established history of tanking the fantasy value of his top receivers. Outside of A.J. Brown’s 2019 and 2020 seasons in Tennessee, no player in a Smith-led offense has surpassed 1,000 receiving yards or more than five touchdowns.
Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts had 770 yards and five scores in 2021. Receiver Drake London had 866 yards, four touchdowns and 905 yards, two touchdowns in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Last year, then-Steelers receiver George Pickens had 900 yards and three touchdowns in his first year under Smith, one season after leading the league in yards per reception.
So, like Wilson, Metcalf has a decent floor because of the volume potential in Pittsburgh’s otherwise unimpressive receivers room. But his ceiling is capped hard by the Smith-run offense.