In July, every NFL team can fantasize about a playoff appearance, no matter how remote the possibility. And almost annually, at least one of the most far-fetched visions somehow comes to fruition.
The NFL’s playoff picture is hardly static, with at least four new teams joining the field every year since 1990. And with the likes of the Houston Texans in 2023 and Washington Commanders last season jumping all the way from an early draft pick toward additional on-field work in January, there’s an established path for even. But there are multiple avenues for teams to make it to that point, and there’s always a good deal of uncertainty involved in determining who can actually complete the trek.
With that said, here is USA TODAY Sports’ ranking of last year’s non-playoff teams from least to most likely to crash the postseason:
18. Cleveland Browns
Credit the Browns for taking the first steps to clean up the biohazard that is the Deshaun Watson era. But while the full toll of one of the costliest personnel moves in NFL history is understandably massive, the short-term outlook is similarly grim given the organization’s insistence on maintaining flexibility for a more extensive potential reset in 2026. None of the four options in the quarterback competition can be called dependable, and there’s insufficient support for the team to minimize the ask of the passing attack, much as Kevin Stefanski might like to. Success for Cleveland this fall hinges on further embracing the transition ahead, meaning the bottom line might be ugly for a bit.
17. New York Giants
Any reason to doubt the Giants is as valid as the next. Start behind center, however, where the primary question seems not to be whether Russell Wilson can revive the offense but rather how long he’ll last before giving way to first-rounder Jaxson Dart. And with a 36-year-old who has been a magnet for sacks – Wilson’s 133 in the three years since he left Seattle are the most of any passer in that span – working behind one of the league’s shoddiest offensive lines, it might not take long for the operation to fall apart. A robust pass rush boosted by Abdul Carter’s arrival seems sure to create havoc, but there’s only so much the group can do to compensate for deficiencies elsewhere. Even if Big Blue shows signs of early progress, a treacherous schedule that brings six matchups with playoff teams in the first eight weeks seems bound to serve as a harsh reality check.
16. New Orleans Saints
A manageable NFC South helps save the Saints from a last-place finish here. Even with New Orleans forced into somewhat of a reboot after Derek Carr’s retirement, an organization that has refused to take a short-term hit for a long-term gain still seemed to resist a rebuild, leaving the roster in an uneven spot for first-year coach Kellen Moore. Despite the outsized veteran presence, there’s little reason to believe either second-round rookie Tyler Shough or second-year passer Spencer Rattler can provide the kind of consistency behind center needed to elevate this outfit.
15. New York Jets
14. Carolina Panthers
After coming out of the other side of Bryce Young’s early-season benching with tangible reason to feel good about the 2023 No. 1 pick, Carolina finally looks to be freed from a cycle of resets. Stability should serve this unit well, with Young even better equipped to attack downfield thanks to his growing confidence in navigating the pocket and the arrival of first-round receiver Tetairoa McMillan. But prioritizing the signal-caller’s development entailed an opportunity cost, as two Day 2 picks at edge rusher (second-rounder Nic Scourton and third-rounder Princely Umanmielen) serve as the primary assistance for a unit that ranked 31st in pass-rush win rate. Even with Derrick Brown back to set the tone along the line, a defense that yielded a league-worst 31.4 points per game last year looks liable to render much of the offense’s progress moot.
13. Las Vegas Raiders
The Silver and Black might have a strong argument for the claim of the offseason’s most improved team. But for all the progress made in solidifying key posts with coach Pete Carroll, general manager John Spytek and quarterback Geno Smith, pushing past the middle of the pack in the AFC will prove to be a tall order given the dearth of building blocks beyond Maxx Crosby and Brock Bowers. Even with electric rookie Ashton Jeanty igniting a dormant running game and better luck on the turnover front after tying for the second-worst differential last year (-16), there’s simply too much ground for Las Vegas to make up on the rest of the hypercompetitive AFC West for this group to factor into the playoff chase at the end of the season.
12. Tennessee Titans
Any hopes of a rapid turnaround in Tennessee likely hinge on Cam Ward giving the offense a respite from the backbreaking sacks and turnovers that led predecessor Will Levis to the bench. But as he works alongside arguably the league’s worst collection skill-position talent and a defense short on difference-makers, it will be difficult for the No. 1 pick to thread the needle between providing enough of a spark for the attack and avoiding coach Brian Callahan’s wrath by trying to do too much. A forgiving schedule and division in flux could prove advantageous, but one offseason isn’t sufficient to transform a roster that even first-year general manager Mike Borgonzi admitted has ‘a lot of holes.’
11. Indianapolis Colts
No one could rightfully call Indianapolis’ offseason a true shake-up, but this was hardly the stay-the-course approach that has been the throughline of Chris Ballard’s tenure. Signing Daniel Jones allows the team to pivot immediately from Anthony Richardson amid what seems to be some buyer’s remorse, or at least frustration with the quarterback’s stunted development. The Colts went the other way on defense, opting for a more dynamic scheme under Lou Anarumo after Gus Bradley’s static ways wore thin. Still, there’s not much to suggest that the Colts can keep up with the Texans or any of the AFC’s other playoff threats given their ho-hum core.
10. New England Patriots
9. Miami Dolphins
In clinging to a roster overly reliant on its premier talent, the Dolphins have to hope for plenty of things to hold together. When they do, Miami can be a handful, as Mike McDaniel boasted the league’s second-highest scoring offense in 2023. But rampant schematic and spending issues have intersected to create several deficiencies – an inability to control games up front, stalling out in short-yardage and red-zone scenarios and a track record of coming up short against top competition – that the organization has only addressed through modest measures. And when Tua Tagovailoa misses substantial time due to injury, as he has in three of the past four seasons, everything comes undone pretty quickly. If things break their way, maybe the Dolphins can continue to keep teams off balance with the creativity of their perpetual-motion machine of an offense. Even then, a defense that ranked fourth in yards allowed could be headed for a hefty regression given the emerging crisis at cornerback.
8. Chicago Bears
There’s little question that a new day is ahead in Chicago, with a franchise that has been out of alignment for nearly two decades now appearing to be in sync with its Ben Johnson-Caleb Williams pairing. The most pressing question is how quickly will the various new parts find their groove in working together? Chemistry and culture can’t be microwaved, so there could be some friction as the roster tries to move on from rampant dysfunction and a new coaching staff finds its footing. Above all, the competition in the NFC North is too formidable for Chicago to simply take the division by storm. Staying in the wild-card hunt isn’t out of the question if Williams makes a substantial leap, but optimism here should center on what’s possible down the line rather than what could be at hand right away.
7. Jacksonville Jaguars
Anyone in search of a longshot candidate to surge all the way into the postseason might want to take a closer look at Jacksonville. If first-year coach Liam Coen can unlock Trevor Lawrence’s true abilities after two years of stunted growth from the quarterback, the Jaguars should be plenty threatening thanks to emerging superstar Brian Thomas Jr. and two-way threat Travis Hunter. Coen’s work with the Buccaneers demonstrated he can transform a rushing attack in little time, though Jacksonville’s offensive front might not be up to the task of leading the charge. A defense that ranked 31st in expected points added allowed per play and last in pass rush win rate has a long way to go before it can provide any consistent backing, but maybe a group that still has high-end talent in a few key spots can generate more turnovers after corralling a league-worst nine in 2024. With the AFC South somewhat fluid, a significant jump is possible.
6. Dallas Cowboys
With Brian Schottenheimer’s appointment as Mike McCarthy’s replacement producing tepid external reactions, the Cowboys enter training camp with perhaps the organization’s lowest profile in years. Maybe that’s best for all involved. New energy from on high could revitalize a group that won 12 games in each of the three seasons prior to last season’s unraveling. An offensive rebalancing also might bear fruit for a beefed-up run game as well as a passing attack that shouldn’t be as reliant on CeeDee Lamb thanks to George Pickens’ arrival. If Dak Prescott bounces back from his season-ending hamstring avulsion and stays healthy, Dallas has the makeup of a group that should at least stay in the playoff conversation late into the campaign.
5. Seattle Seahawks
As the only team on this list that missed out on the playoffs via tiebreaker in 2024, Seattle would have been a natural candidate to run things back for Year 2 of Mike Macdonald’s tenure. Instead, the coach chose to massively reshape the team to his liking, installing a run-oriented attack under new coordinator Klint Kubiak while swapping in Sam Darnold for Geno Smith. Leaving the reins to Darnold, who has largely reflected his surroundings in previous stints elsewhere, represents a sizable risk given the shortage of perimeter playmakers and the offensive line’s continued vulnerability to interior pressure. Perhaps a working formula can emerge given how much Macdonald is willing to pin on his chaos-inducing defense. But this is a lot of change for one outfit to stomach, and it’s not immediately clear it’s all for the better – at least for the immediate future.
4. Atlanta Falcons
The overcrowded bandwagon emptied out as Atlanta posted its seventh consecutive losing season, but full-on abandonment of this group seems premature. While Kirk Cousins shouldered the brunt of the blame for failing to lift what seemed like an otherwise playoff-ready supporting cast, the defense proved to be the team’s undoing, giving up 30 or more points four times during a critical 2-6 season-ending stretch. New coordinator Jeff Ulbrich could push a younger unit somewhere closer to average in several categories, though things could unravel quickly if a pass rush that has been absent for long stretches remains missing. Higher highs and lower lows are likely in store for an offense helmed by Michael Penix Jr. given the second-year quarterback’s aggressiveness and erratic ball placement, but he doesn’t have to force things with Bijan Robinson and Drake London at his disposal. Atlanta clearly expects to be in the postseason mix given its offseason plan of attack, but even more scrutiny – particularly on the widely ridiculed move to give up next year’s first-round pick to secure edge rusher James Pearce Jr. at No. 26 overall in April – will follow if it falls short.
3. Arizona Cardinals
General manager Monti Ossenfort and coach Jonathan Gannon largely resisted making splashy, all-in moves during the first two years of their rebuild. After doubling their win total in 2024, the Cardinals finally got the green light for a major investment on defense. Signing Josh Sweat and re-upping Baron Browning changes the complexion of the pass rush, as a unit that previously depended on creating pressure from a variety of sources – 12 players had at least two sacks last season, but none had more than five – now boasts high-end threats off the edge. Dalvin Tomlinson, Calais Campbell and first-round rookie Walter Nolen III make the Cardinals far more imposing up front, with 2024 first-rounder Darius Robinson essentially serving as a bonus addition after missing the bulk of his rookie season with a calf injury. Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. will be under pressure to foster a better connection after the two seemed out of sorts, but a ground game that ranked second in yards per carry (5.3) is unlikely to waver. With a favorable schedule that serves up just one playoff team before the Week 8 bye, Arizona could surprise many with an early surge in the standings that facilitates a postseason push.
2. Cincinnati Bengals
In one sense, forking over massive extensions to star receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in March might have seemed like a sizable shift for a historically frugal franchise. But the moves also served as Cincinnati doubling down on a distinct team-building approach that it believes will lead back into the postseason. Yes, there’s still a massive burden placed on Joe Burrow to compensate for an offensive line that remains shaky and an underdeveloped defense that needs to grow up fast under new coordinator Al Golden. But this is a formula that has worked for the Bengals and allowed them to compete with the AFC’s best. Things might get dicey if extended standoffs with NFL sack king Trey Hendrickson and first-round edge rusher Shemar Stewart bleed into the season, as another slow start could be in store with five playoff teams on the docket from Weeks 3-7. If Hendrickson gets back into the fold, however, Cincinnati might have a strong argument to be bumped to No. 1 given its established contender credentials.
1. San Francisco 49ers
An immediate swing back to Super Bowl contender status can’t be counted on given the widespread attrition since this organization reached the grand stage in 2023. But it’s entirely reasonable that one of the NFC’s best systemic setups would gravitate back toward the postseason standard it has become accustomed to under Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch. So long as Christian McCaffrey returns to form and last year’s catastrophic run of injuries proves to be anomalous, an offense that ranked ninth in EPA/play will continue to vex most opponents. Robert Saleh’s return as defensive coordinator should fuel the turnaround of a defense that fell apart in a hurry, though several new starters must step up in critical spots. And after last year’s schedule offered little respite, this year’s much softer edition brings just four matchups against teams that made the postseason last year – and none against squads that posted more than 10 wins. There are holes to be patched, without question, but San Francisco’s resurgence could materialize just as quickly as its downturn did.