Playoff projection: Miami leads race that is about to get all kinds of crazy

The college football landscape is chaotic midway through the season with no clear leader for the College Football Playoff.
Several top teams, including Georgia and Oregon, have shown significant vulnerabilities in recent games.
The current College Football Playoff bracket projection has Miami, Indiana, Ohio State and Texas Tech as the top four seeds.

We’ve officially reached peak crazy midway through the college football season, without a College Football Playoff leader in sight. 

If Alabama is on the top of the big, bad SEC (because it sure isn’t Ole Miss or Texas A&M), what does that make ACC middling Florida State? The Noles have played four games against Power conference teams, and won once.

I’ll let you guess who the one is. 

If USC coach Lincoln Riley can call the Trojans a “tough-ass” team, imagine the toughness of Illinois, whose two losses were to Indiana and Ohio State by a combined 71 points. The Illini, of course, beat USC ― after nearly blowing a two-touchdown lead on the tough-ass Trojans.

If Kirby Smart is dancing on tables at Auburn because once mighty Georgia escaped The Plains with a second-half rally to beat an Auburn, does that say more about the Dawgs ― or Auburn’s decision three years ago to hire offensive-minded coach Hugh Freeze, whose offense A.) can’t protect the quarterback, and B.) couldn’t throw the ball efficiently even if it could protect the quarterback. 

If James Franklin was fired at Penn State because he couldn’t win big games, what does that make Dan Lanning at Oregon? Because the Ducks’ record in games of significance is beginning to look a lot like Franklin’s record in those games at Penn State.

Franklin won a Big Ten title (so did Lanning), Franklin once beat Ohio State at home (so did Lanning). And Lanning, like Franklin, has had it handed to him in big games. Washington twice, Ohio State in last year’s Rose Bowl, and Indiana on Saturday. 

And speaking of Indiana, you really want crazy? The Hoosiers sure look like the best team in the nation. Which, of course, is absolutely absurd.

All of that can only mean one thing: it’s about to get all kinds of crazy in the second half of the season.

A look at this week’s CFP bracket projection: 

1. Miami: Out of sight, nearly out of mind. Canes need to wallop everything in sight (which won’t be difficult in the ACC) to have a legit chance at top seed. 

2. Indiana: I can’t believe I’m writing this: if Indiana isn’t 12-0 in late November, it will be the biggest upset of the season. Next: Michigan State. 

3. Ohio State: I get the Matt Patricia love with the defense. The Buckeyes after that? OK … fine. But No.1? We’ll know a lot more after Ohio State and Indiana play in Indianapolis in the Big Ten championship game. Next: at Wisconsin.

4. Texas Tech: You’ve got to actually take time to watch this team. The suffocating defense, the quick-strike offense. Stop looking at the Red Raiders through the Big 12 lens. Next: at Arizona State. 

5. Alabama: Let’s be honest, if Missouri QB Beau Pribula doesn’t throw two interceptions, we’re talking about Missouri as the best team in the SEC. Next: Tennessee.

6. Oregon: The biggest concern for Oregon after the Indiana loss: pass protection. Dante Moore was sacked six times, and but for his unique escapability, would’ve been sacked 10. 

7. Texas A&M: The day beating Florida is a big deal, is the day Lane Kiffin is coaching the Gators. Next: at Arkansas. 

8. Oklahoma: I get it, injured QB John Mateer wanted to play. Shouldn’t have, should’ve completely healed first. Forget the battle, think of the war. Next: at South Carolina.

10. Georgia: Just barely hanging on, and doing it on reputation alone (and a little help from SEC officiating). Something tells me we’ll all jump back on the boogeyman bandwagon after this coming weekend in Athens. Next: Ole Miss.  

11. Ole Miss: The 2024 team was Kiffin’s best. This group is finding ways to win, but living dangerously. And could still make the CFP. Next: at Georgia.

12. South Florida: You’re a No. 5 seed and you get this team in the first round? Oh, boy. Next: Florida Atlantic.

The Bracket

First round byes: Miami, Indiana, Ohio State, Texas Tech. 

First round games

(12) South Florida at Alabama (5)

(11) Ole Miss at (6) Oregon

(10) Georgia at (7) Texas A&M (7)

(9) Georgia Tech at (8) Oklahoma

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.