The college basketball season is less than two months old, yet it’s already becoming clear who is capable of winning a national championship.
As conference play begins in earnest, there’s no more easy victories against cupcakes, and you find if your team is the real deal or not.
Some squads have already proven themselves and look like they’re on a warpath toward the Final Four in Indianapolis. Others maybe don’t have those impressive victories, but their records can’t be denied and may be worth paying attention to.
Which ones have the best shot at cutting down the nets inside Lucas Oil Stadium on April 6? We rank the top 10 candidates, as well as teams just on the outside and those intriguing options that still have some more to prove as nonconference play ends.
Potential/wait-and-see
∎ Vanderbilt, Nebraska, Arkansas, Tennessee, Illinois, Virginia, Southern California, Georgia
This field features a mix of surprises but also teams who haven’t lived up to preseason hype just yet. It starts with Vanderbilt and Nebraska, two teams that are still undefeated and playing great ball. However, the schedule hasn’t been challenging yet. The same could be said for one-loss teams in Virginia, USC and Georgia.
Then there’s Arkansas, Tennessee and Illinois, teams that have stumbled against some top talent but have picked up some notable wins in between. It’s obvious what’s holding them back, and when those issues are fixed, it’s led to those important Quad 1 wins. It’s just a matter of whether they can find consistency to put some more belief in.
Just on the outside
∎ North Carolina, Louisville, Kansas, Alabama, Texas Tech
A group of teams that are bound for the second weekend of the NCAA tournament, but that’s not the ceiling. North Carolina doesn’t look like a bubble team anymore and just needs some more key wins. Louisville’s offense is elite but hasn’t been on every night. Despite Kansas, Alabama and Texas Tech having had some bad nights against top-tier competition, each of them has responded well and at full strength and can compete with anyone.
Top 10 national title contenders
10. Houston
Last season’s national runner-up reloaded with a tremendous recruiting class and is back to making life difficult for opposing offenses. The only issue has been the Cougars haven’t played to the same level with the ball, leading to some results that are too close for comfort. Despite that, Houston is still 11-1 and the inexperienced players on the team are only going to get better, and its already showing. It won’t be long before they fit the mold of what a Kelvin Sampson team looks like.
9. BYU
The hype of AJ Dybantsa’s arrival has been backed up with a 12-1 start to the season. To try and prove it was legit, BYU scheduled a worthy nonconference slate, and it’s done the job with a 3-1 Quad 1 record, the lone blemish a two-point loss to Connecticut. However, the wins have lost some luster as they weren’t as noteworthy as initially hoped. So, this remains a largely untested team. That shouldn’t be a reason to sell any Cougars stock, as BYU should more than hold its own against a crowded Big 12.
8. Michigan State
Tom Izzo still has it with Sparty off to another incredible start to the season. Michigan State is 11-1 and not only has it picked up wins against Arkansas, Kentucky, North Carolina and Iowa, but the Spartans mostly looked far superior in those outings. The lone loss was a tough one to Duke that just got away. The mix of young and veterans has blended well with Jeremy Fears Jr. playing like an All-American guard. The offense has slowed down a bit, but there isn’t a reason Michigan State shouldn’t be able to defend its Big Ten regular-season title.
7. Purdue
The preseason No. 1 team certainly looks capable of finishing the season in that spot with some dominant showings against quality opponents in Alabama, Texas Tech and Auburn. The only thing preventing it from being in the top five was the dreaded home blowout to Iowa State. Maybe that loss was what Purdue needed as its been crushing teams since then. The Boilermakers are elite on both sides of the ball, and Braden Smith is en route to national player of the year consideration, leading the country in assists per game (9.6).
6. Gonzaga
Another competitive nonconference schedule, another season of Gonzaga proving its a powerful force. The Bulldogs have ran right through nearly everyone they’ve played with double-digit victories in 11 of its 12 wins. No team is better at getting the ball in the hoop, averaging a nation-leading 34.8 made shots per game. But when the Zags played in what many thought was a national championship game preview against Michigan, they stood no chance in a 30-point romp to the Wolverines. Best believe that’s going to be on Gonzaga’s mind the rest of the season as it is poised to run through the West Coast Conference one last time.
5. Duke
Everyone though last season’s Duke team — led by Cooper Flagg — was one of its best in recent memory. There’s a chance this one is even better than the 2024-25 Final Four squad. The Blue Devils have been incredible to watch so far, passing nearly every test that’s been thrown at them. They’ve been able to win at home, on the road or at neutral sites, and it’s all thanks to arguably the best freshman in the country so far in Cameron Boozer, who leads Division I with 23.2 points per game. They shoot the ball well but the defense is even better, allowing more than 75 points only once in the one-point loss to Texas Tech. Jon Scheyer has a great chance for back-to-back Final Four appearances for the first time since the program went to five straight from 1988-92.
4. Iowa State
It’s time to put some respect on Iowa State, which has continuously proven it is not to be messed with. The 12-0 Cyclones have been relentless offensively, shooting 53.4% from the field, second-best in the country, along with a 41.6% mark from 3-point (fourth in Division I). It’s hard to keep up with when Iowa State is forcing more than 18 turnovers a game. The Cyclones don’t own many ranked wins, but there may be no greater win so far for any team than the 23-point rout it put on Purdue in Mackey Arena. Iowa State has so much experience spread out in its rotation and that veteran-led group can get the Cyclones to the Final Four for the first time since 1944.
3. Connecticut
Dan Hurley has shaken off the up-and-down 2024-25 results and has assembled the right roster to put the Huskies right back in the national championship picture. The defense has been what’s gotten UConn back to being a dominant force, ranking sixth in scoring defense, giving up just 61.1 points per game. It had a really loaded first month of the season that included five ranked opponents in four weeks. The Huskies went 4-1 with the only loss at home to Arizona, and it got wins over BYU and at Kansas. The Huskies have proven they can win away from home and look miles ahead of the rest of the Big East, which means a No. 1 seed and playing close to home is very much in play for UConn to go for a third title in four seasons.
2. Arizona
1. Michigan
The top national championship contender is the most dominant team in the country, as Michigan has stormed its way through the start of the season. The additions of Yaxel Lendeborg and Aday Mara have given Dusty May one of the most lethal units that is blowing out nearly everyone it plays. After a couple of close early wins, the Wolverines have won by double-digits in its past eight games, with an average margin of victory at 34.3 points. That includes the perfect showing at the Players Era Festival that was capped by the 40-point win over Gonzaga. It averages 95.4 points per game and has eclipsed the century mark in five of its past six games. It doesn’t look like this team is slowling down, and it looks like it will run through what it already a challenging Big Ten. Everything about Michigan screams a team that can win it all.